Why the Wii needs a price cut fast

Smooth ride up until now

The Wii needs a price cut fast and here is why. Up until now, Nintendo has had a very smooth ride this generation. They started out with the lowest price proposition by far and the most revolutionary, intuitive and immersive control scheme and biggest fun factor to top it all off. At least, that is what more than 50 million people around the globe think.

Sure, the white box can only deliver 480p as its top resolution. And the rest of its hardware is equally modest, making sure that most graphics-intensive games by third parties get either a toned down version, a completely unique adaptation (some examples are ´Overlord: Dark Legend´, ´Dead Space Extraction´, ´Resident Evil: Darkside Chronicles´) or pass the console by completely. But, all the unquestionable Nintendo goodness aside (´Metroid Prime 3´, ´Zelda: Twilight Princess´, ´Super Mario Galaxy´), hardcore gamers got a few third party gems, too. Particularly in the survival horror genre, Wii boasts more titles than any other console ever offered, I reckon (I have counted 20 already) and some are absolute must-haves. So, Wii sold to new gamers as well as to veterans, who probably own more than one console anyway. And it has been smooth sailing for Nintendo up until now, with Wii selling about as many units as the two competitors put together.

Microsoft seemed to endlessly tweak the SKU variety of their Xbox360 as well as their price. And, leaving the elusive fun factor aside, the 360 has been the best value proposition by far for a long time. But even this circumstance could not change the reality that is each companies' respective market share. Sure, Nintendo has hit dry spells in the past, with other consoles selling more units for a few months in one territory or another. But these dips were usually related to a lighter release calendar. When bigger titles drew nearer, sales rose again.

Software no longer moves hardware

Not anymore, it seems. The news of Wii hardware sales taking a 30 percent dip in the US last month despite the release of ´Wii Sports Resort´ should have Nintendo worried. Very worried, in my opinion. Because the title should move hardware as much as any other Nintendo game. A gigantic marketing campaign in the US should have made sure that the consumers were aware of the release. The fact that it did not move a significant amount of hardware can only really mean one thing: everyone that wanted to buy a Wii in the said territory has bought one. If a title like ´Wii Sports Resort´ cannot invigorate sales, then no title can (at least not of Nintendo's casual variety, which undoubtedly was the backbone of the console's success). The only option available to Nintendo of America may be a price drop. This would surely convince more people to hop on the Wii bandwagon. But software no longer seems to move hardware.

Upcoming games to disappoint

First, a little reality check: Am I being unfair here? Of course, all the other consoles sold badly in July. Well, yes. But the PS3 only took a 25 percent dip and the 360 went down a mere 15 points, only half of the Wii's loss. That is a significant difference. But what about other territories? In Japan, year-to-date year-over-year changes show big losses for the console. Europe may be the Wii's last resort (this is actually a double pun, if you remember an obscure PC game from 1996) but a worldwide downward trend is becoming clearer and clearer, it seems.

But what about other upcoming titles, particularly the third party portfolio, which is still a sore spot for Wii owners? Surely, exclusive titles like ´Monster Hunter Tri´ or ´Red Steel 2´ will sell hardware to the traditional crowd, if the more casual titles now fail to shift consoles. Unfortunately, I have it on good authority that both of these highly anticipated games will not deliver. They may look nice, but both titles are being rushed out of the door. Wii owners will have a few good survival horror titles to mull over. But there is no shortage of those on the platforms. So a ´Dead Space Extraction´, no matter how good it will be, will not become the killer app that a polished ´Monster Hunter Tri´ could have become.

Price cut the only solution

Especially with the PlayStation3's price drop and sleeker re-design, as well as motion control around the corner for both high definition consoles, Nintendo is coming under intense pressure this generation for the very first time. The only way out seems to be a price cut, preferably to be announced around Tokyo Game Show next month (though Nintendo will not exhibit, as always). I do not see any alternative for Nintendo (and I am not alone with this opinion), if they want to maintain the impressive momentum they have exhibited so far. This is the curse of a runaway success: maintaining it. After all, a boom, in economics, is a highly unstable and volatile state. And if they do not re-position the Wii's price point, Nintendo may soon find out the hard way.

EDIT Looks like I was spot on with my analysis. The following image was published by Kotaku. It may be fake, of course. But both the timing and extent of the price cut would fit perfectly, so I believe it is legit.


Source: Joystiq, Joystiq, Chart Get! Chart Get!
Thanks to: Some German Guy

E3 2009: Microsoft challenging Nintendo, Sony finished

So, the three press briefings have come and gone. What remains? Quite obviously, Microsoft had the biggest surprise in store for us. Project Natal is certainly ambitious and may serve to position the Xbox360 quite differently in terms of target demographic. Nintendo, while briefly showing that odd finger sensor had almost no surprises when it comes to hardware. Team Ninja working on a new Metroid game was the big news of the briefing and it is hard to exaggerate the ramifications of this collaboration, given Nintendo’s poor track record with third party developers in the past.

Immediately, arguments ensued over whether Xbox360’s Natal or Wii’s Motion Plus will be the more accurate system. But that appears to be an academic debate. The big question in my mind is: where does that leave Sony? The truly gargantuan sales figures of a ´Brain Age´ and a ´Wii Fit´ clearly show where the gaming mainstream has shifted to (or rather, where the new mainstream has been discovered). This is precisely where Nintendo is positioned and it clearly is where Microsoft would like to be with Natal. Sony, however, will have nothing to offer this new mainstream. If they really are working on a Wiimote-like controller themselves, they will show it no earlier than E3 2010 and it will launch no earlier than 2011. This will be too late for this generation because, in my mind, by 2011, Microsoft and Nintendo will be talking about their successor consoles. And with the next generation of consoles, no one will care about a PS3 peripheral.

It seems quite obvious that the PlayStation3 will be falling behind even further, after the E3 announcements. While mainstream gaming has shifted (and opened up to millions new gamers in the process), Sony has remained where the mainstream used to be. Of course, ´God of War III´ will be a spectacular game. But, in terms of sales figures, it will be a niche product and fail to move substantial amounts of hardware. Especially given that Sony boss Stringer will not allow a price cut until Christmas at the earliest. I am absolutely sure: Sony will remain in third place for this generation and I am even less optimistic about Sony’s progress in the next console cycle.

EDIT I stand corrected. Sony did show motion controls other than the Sixaxis. I was unable to watch the Sony conference and really had not seen the motion control section in Joystiq’s live transcription. Sorry. Thanks to Some Guy for pointing out my mistake.

It is interesting to note that I wrote about the patent most likely implicated by this technology back in 2005 and I even tried out a similar prototype at the 2001 ECTS, London’s former videogame expo. There, a webcam connected to the PlayStation2 was tuned to certain bright colours and had the dimensions of various tools and weapons stored in memory. Holding a brightly coloured plastic sword or mace, the console could estimate a 3D position based on the object’s dimensions by comparing them to the actual view in perspective. This way, the same weapon was replicated in the game and moved almost in real-time to my movements. Considering this was fake 3D – since the console only estimated a spatial position based on the distorted perspective of a 2D image – it worked pretty well. It seems to me that the demo shown at the Sony conference was almost the same technology and will work the same way.

However, even if the technology shown will be available next year and works well, it is still no comparison to Nintendo’s and Microsoft’s real 3D motion controls. The only advantage is that Sony’s approach should work with a standard webcam, which will make it the cheapest of the three. But the experience may be less immersive, too. So I stand by my initial judgement: Microsoft may be successfully moving on what now is Nintendo’s turf – the new mainstream – but Sony will most likely fail to catch up.

Telecommunications giant behind ´ZuneX´ fake

The ´ZuneX´ rumour I recently reported about is a fake, I can exclusively reveal. It is an interesting fake, though, since it is perpetuated by German telecommunications giant and multinational corporation Deutsche Telekom AG, Europe's largest according to Wikipedia.




The German gaming site who posted the various ´ZuneX´ images, Mimbee, notes in their imprint that they are part of the Telekom's network. The Whois information for the domain confirm this. While I found it hard to believe that a multinational corporation would be behind such a fake, my research revealed that the gaming site is not even an outside commission job, but an in-house development. Apparently, their reasons for the stunt have nothing to do with hunting down cheap clicks, though, as a member of staff wrote to me in an email. Above everything else, it was meant to be satirical, they claimed.

I replied, voicing concern that a large corporation has joined the ranks of fifteen year-olds in their parents' basement by devising and perpetuating such a relatively elaborate fake. Their reply, again, contained no apology.

To this day, the site has not come clean on the fake. Quite the contrary. In a recent entry, the Telekom bragged about the reach of the story, including mentions in the Playboy, Yahoo, Boing Boing and various reputable gaming news sites.





In my mind, this episode is nothing more than a cheap attempt at getting clicks. It is flawed viral marketing by another multinational (remember Sony's attempt) and it will most likely become equally successful. And, for those people who know what the term means, that last comment was meant to be satirical.

It's one thing to have to debunk teenagers. It's quite another thing when someone like the Deutsche Telekom is leading you on, in a desperate hunt for page impressions.

EDIT You can read the original story in German over on my newsroom's blog.

Image Source: Sol.de

Microsoft to enter handheld market?

Microsoft will announce a handheld gaming console at the E3 next month according to substantial rumours by Mimbee, a previously unknown German gaming site.

The rumour concerns ´ZuneX´, a Zune media player which doubles as a gaming console. Its alleged features include obviously dedicated software, as well as compatibility with Xbox Live Arcade and the recently announced cloud gaming service OnLive. It is said to feature MicroSD and SIM card slots, making at least some mobile phone functions likely.

Its tech specs are comparable to the original Xbox, at least in parts. The news site has since published a wealth of images, including a product shot, logo, a snapshot of a presentation, a snapshot of a hands-on session and five detail shots of a product sheet showing tech specs.












Of course, we need to ask the question whether the above images are real or just an elaborate fake. In my mind, ZX-1000 is too close a product code to the PSP. But that is nothing more than a hunch. There are further reasons to believe that the images are fake.

On the third image showing tech specs, under the heading ´Input´, there is the entry ´Customizable controlls´. A spelling mistake like this one is highly unlikely on a legitimate document of this type.

Also, an alleged Microsoft Office Twitter account is cited in the story which stated that "June 2009 will be an important month for Zune lovers" and later added: "New product launch, that's all I'm allowed to say. Hold off from buying an iPhone/Pre. :)"

This appears to be a mistake, though. The official Microsoft Twitter account in question is this one, as the above user admitted himself.

What is certain is that a German Xbox representative twittered: "As of today, I am really pissed that I'm not going to be at E3. Unfortunately, I can only say more on June 2nd." This could be entirely unrelated to the above rumour, though.




I was initially swayed to believe that the images were real. But the fact that the Twitter account is not an official Microsoft one makes them far less credible. The website also cannot be traced back to reliable Whois information. They claim to be a gaming site run by German telecommunications giant Deutsche Telekom AG. Given the very colloquial style of the site, I find this highly doubtful. T-Online's gaming site really does link to the site but calls it "a satirical video blog." Of course, I will investigate this further next week.

Finally, a spelling mistake in documents such as above is only a subtle indicator, but it makes me even more sceptical. I myself believe that the story is fake. What do you think? Do you find any other clues in the material above? Please share your thoughts in the comments section.

EDIT There is a similar rumour about a revised Zune player codenamed "xYz", which is described as a "digital entertainment handheld". TeamXbox claims to have learned about the device from several inside sources.

Apparently, the device "sits somewhere in-between the Xbox and Zune platforms, offering both gaming and media playback, as well as Internet-related services, all in a portable format." The codename "xYz" is meant to symbolize that the device will act as a catalyst between those two platforms, Xbox and Zune.

Another source consulted for this story confirmed the development of such mobile device, at least as of December of last year. This source defined the Microsoft handheld as “unlike anything on the market today,” and said that the only way to describe it is to “think of a mashup of the Sony Mylo, the PSP, and the iPhone… errr, the iPod Touch; [the MS handheld] doesn’t need access to a phone network.” That last sentence was one of the juiciest comments made, since the source wanted to emphasize this device lacks access to a phone network and that’s why he changed the iPhone example with the iPod Touch.

Even if several analysts and publications have reported that Microsoft is planning to market its own smartphone, this second source told me not to expect any business application or user interface (UI) that resembles a smartphone. Furthermore, the source stressed:

“Although the Microsoft handheld is definitely a converged device, this is not a Zune Phone.” The source added: “Microsoft won’t compete with its Windows Mobile customers.”

There is far more information in the article itself, so head on over.

With the source and the article oozing journalistic integrity and, as such, reliability, this rumour appears far more credible to me than the one above. I have also been told by someone working directly for one of the current two handheld manufacturers that the spec sheet of the alleged ´ZuneX´ looks highly unusual.

EDIT I can exclusively reveal that the entire ´ZuneX´ rumour and concerned documents are fake. For more, intriguing details please read my next post.

Source: Mimbee
Thanks to: Gameswelt (German)
Image Source: Sol.de

Nibris subsidiary Bloober Team emerges

Bloober Team, the subsidiary studio of Poland-based ´Sadness´ developer Nibris has finally launched their website, announcing three new games and dishing out information on their various in-house graphics engines.




For a start, Bloober Team claims to be an approved developer by both Nintendo and Sony, currently seeking Microsoft approval. The studio also claims to be developing four titles and has apparently developed two graphics engines.

Games
´Last Flight´ (WiiWare); development status: demo ready
´Troopies series´ (Xbox360, WiiWare, PSP); development status: early stage of production
´Engineering an Empire: Egypt´ (DS, PSP, PC); development status: unknown
Undisclosed RPG project (Xbox360, WiiWare); development status: preproduction

Engines
´Cross Engine´ (Wii, PC, with Xbox360 and PSP support by the end of the year)
´Black Horse engine´ (DS)

No screenshots are available on the site. Instead, the studio shows three pieces of artwork for ´Last Flight´. Here is one of them:




Interestingly enough, the website seems to make no mention of parent studio Nibris, although some images are shared between the websites and Nibris links to Bloober as a "befriended studio".

While the site looks professional, it also contains some spelling mistakes and awkward use of English.

It seems also worthy of note that the studio appears to concentrate solely on digital distribution. It seems that they will not release any games on physical media.




I know some of have been waiting for my in-depth analysis of Nibris for some time. While I must apologize for the time it took me so far, it is coming along and will be published as soon my little son gives me some time off. I estimate that it should be done within the next four weeks.

Source: Bloober Team

´Metal Gear Solid 4´ no longer PS3 exclusive?, part VIII

Hideo Kojima is hinting at a new installment in the ´Metal Gear´ series, possibly on Xbox360, via this teaser site. It contains a flash animation that apparently features the Xbox360's ring of light, pictured below the screengrab for comparison:





Alternatively, the small caps letter ´i´ could hint at a whole number of other platforms: the iPhone, the DSi and the Wii. The exclamation mark is part of the ´Metal Gear Acid´ logo, but could also reference the MGS series symbol for being discovered by the enemy. A reference to ´Metal Gear Acid´ is unlikely since the directory the teaser animation is in reads ´MGST´. This strongly suggests a ´Metal Gear Solid´ title, perhaps with a subtitle beginning with the letter ´T´.

Only in mid-October, a Konami spokesperson confirmed: "We're actively looking into a [Metal Gear Solid 4] release for the Xbox 360" in a Japanese magazine. Shortly afterwards, the journal removed the quote from the article.

Speaking to Eurogamer in late August, the series' creator Hideo Kojima tried to dispel the rumours about an Xbox360 version and wished people would stop asking.

Because MGS4 was optimised for the PS3 it is probably not possible. But, you know, what kind of disturbs me sometimes, because a lot of people ask me about this PS3/360 question, is that it's not about the hardware - I want people to look at the game itself. Sometimes I even feel like it should be on a PC so that people don't ask me about hardware and platforms.

Still, Kojima himself hinted at an Xbox360 version. Many industry experts, myself included, have taken the non-exclusivity for granted. The PlayStation3's poor hardware sales and the game's staggering budget simply do not make an unlimited exclusivity a viable option from an economic point of view. And there were plenty of indicators that an Xbox360 version was already in the works. Here is another updated rundown of all the other hints and rumours regarding this debate from day one.

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Part I, October 2006

Electronic Gaming Monthly tease readers with the headline ´Metal Gear Solid 4 on Xbox 360?´ on the magazine´s cover.

However, on the NeoGAF forums, former EGM editor Che Chou seeks to squash the rumours.

It's simply a rumor that Konami higher-ups are pressuring Kojima Productions to consider making MGS4 a multiplatform game because production costs on the game are unsurprisingly high and only getting higher. With PS3 install base numbers not looking all that rosy due to console cost and manufacturing problems, Konami is scared they can't recoup their investment on only 1 platform alone.

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Part II, December 2006

On his blog, industry insider Daniel Boutros claims that an Xbox360 version of MGS4 has been confirmed behind closed doors.

It's coming a few months later than the PS3 game, but it's happening folks.

This is said to be because publishers - including Konami - don't believe there'll be enough PS3s out there by the time the game hits because of the blu ray diode failure issues. (...)

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Part III, January 2007

Speaking to GamePro, Hideo Kojima himself says that ´MGS4 is actually for the PS3 only,´ adding a significant ´so far´.

If I say too much, Mr. Kutaragi might get really upset. I think that the PS3 is difficult to work with, but so was the PS2. (...)

I do have strong interest in creating something for the Xbox 360. In the US and Europe, it is selling, and I think it will sell a lot this year as well. I'm a fan of Gears of War as well, it's very interesting.

Frankly speaking, I want to create something on the PC. It's a multi-platform [format]. I've been regularly studying work on the PC anyways, and I want to provide something as a world-wide platform because of the consequences with timing on the PlayStation platforms, MGS4 is actually for the PS3 only so far.

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Part IV, April 2007

The VG Resource Center claims to have received a statement by an anonymous source within Konami.

Yes, in fact, we are working on putting Metal Gear Solid 4 on the Xbox 360 and PC, which should both come out roughly 6 months after the PS3 release. However, we've been working with Microsoft so the 360 and PC versions will both take advantage of Xbox Live and Games for Windows Live, with such features as achievements and the ability for 360 and PC owners to play against each other in multiplayer.

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Part V, May 2007

An alleged Microsoft employee writing for Destructoid confirms that the game will be released on Xbox360 no more than one year after the PlayStation3 version. The article reads:

Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots will not be a PS3 exclusive after all. It has been confirmed that it will make its way to the Xbox 360 in 2008.

There is no true date set for the release at this point, but November of 2008 has been mentioned. This is not set in stone as Konami is working with Microsoft to bring the date forward as much as possible. (...) The announcement hasn't been officially made yet, but the source works for Konami, and I know for a fact that MS has been negotiating this for months.

The article has since been subjected to a ´Cease and Desist´ order.

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Part VI, July 2007

A Reuters article cites Kazumi Kitaue, head of Konami's North American and European operations speaking about a multi-platform MGS4.

Kitaue said Konami may need to expand the target hardware for its blockbuster fighting game Metal Gear Solid, which has so far been developed for Sony's PlayStation machines, to other consoles in the future to recoup development costs.

"Since Metal Gear Solid was born for the PlayStation, we would like to keep it a PlayStation game. But we might have to take some steps," Kitaue said. (...)

Only days later, the Official Xbox Magazine claims a "bankable source" confirmed that the game would be coming to Xbox360 "a few months" after the PS3 version.

Soon after, music and videogame retailer HMV lists a PS3 and an Xbox360 version on its website, detailing 2008 release dates of April 18 and September 26, respectively, later claiming an "admin error".

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Part VII, January 2008

Xbox site XboxFamily claimed to have been told about an Xbox360 version of ´Metal Gear Solid 4´ being in the works, citing an inside source with the game´s publisher.

Speaking to a Konami rep at an undisclosed distribution meeting, I was told, after a lot of nagging, that yes indeed MGS was in development for the 360. The rep stated that Metal Gear Solid will be released for the Xbox 360 between 12 to 14 months after the PS3 version hits shelves. This is not a rumor.

Only some months before, in a Reuters article published in late November, the game´s assistant producer Ryan Payton said the following about the publisher´s high expectations for the game.

Payton said the new "Metal Gear Solid" needs to sell over a million copies on the first day it goes on sale due to its costly production, but that may be a tough mark to hit given sluggish PS3 sales.

EDIT Here are some interesting theories by other media outlets, starting with the brand new Offworld, Boing Boing's gaming site.

Back in July, as many may have forgot, a French games blog suggested a rumor that Kojima Productions might have a December Surprise up its sleeve. December 12th, they said, six months after the release of the game (that length of time, players will note, fitting in nicely with the fiction of ´Metal Gear Solid 4´) might trigger an in-game event.

PC World (via Yahoo News) also has some interesting comments on this:

Since the colors are electric green on black, and since the symbol to the right looks an awful lot like the symbol in the middle of the power button on the face of the 360, it's not hard to see why.

On the other hand, it's actually just the universal power symbol, also known as IEC 5009 (which refers to "power" but alternatively to "standby" or both "power/standby") as well as IEEE 1621, where it refers explicitly to the "power control user interface." It's also on Apple laptops, Windows-based laptops, desktops, various other electronic devices, and if you look at the touch button on your PS3 -- yep, it's there too. That it's green may have some significance...or it may be a red herring. Hard to say.

EDIT Here is another interesting theory, courtesy of TVG, focussing on the inverted exclamation mark.

TVG has its own theory: MGS4 was released globally on the 12th of June (12/06). Invert that date like the exclamation point, and you get '06/12' – which is tomorrow.

So, is Konami finally confirming tomorrow that MGS4 will be heading to Microsoft as the last great third-party PlayStation exclusive to go multi-platform?

Sources: Konami, Joystiq, Joystiq, Eurogamer, Offworld, PC World (via Yahoo News)
Thanks to: Kolt, Kotaku, Kotaku